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Discrete Probability Distributions

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  Edexcel A Level Further Maths — Further Statistics 1

Discrete Probability Distributions

The big idea: a discrete random variable is just a list of numbers with probabilities attached, and once you can find its mean (E(X)) and spread (Var(X)), you can predict, transform, and combine it with total confidence.

Summary — What This Chapter Covers
  • E(X) — the expected value (mean) of a discrete random variable: multiply each value by its probability and add them up.
  • E(X²) and E(g(X)) — the expected value of a function of X, found by applying the function to each x-value first, then weighting by probability.
  • Var(X) — the variance (spread) of X, calculated as E(X²) − (E(X))².
  • Linear transformations — how E(X) and Var(X) change when you do aX + b to every value of X.
  • Problem solving — building your own distribution tables from word problems, combining two independent variables, and handling a variable Y that depends on X.
Topic 1: E(X) of Discrete Random Variables
1What does E(X) actually mean?

E(X) stands for the expected value — but that name is a little misleading, because it doesn't mean "the value you should expect to see." It's really the long-run average if you repeated the random experiment thousands of times and averaged your results.

Here's the classic example that makes this click: if you flip a fair coin 5 times, the expected number of tails is 2.5. You will never actually get 2.5 tails on a single go — you'll get 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5. But if you did this experiment thousands of times and averaged all your results, you'd land right around 2.5. E(X) doesn't have to be an achievable outcome — it's a theoretical balancing point.

Think of it like a physical seesaw. Imagine each value of X sitting on a number line, and its probability is how "heavy" that value is. E(X) is exactly where you'd need to place the pivot so the whole seesaw balances perfectly. Values with bigger probabilities pull the balance point more strongly toward them.

Formula
E(X) = Σ x·P(X = x)
In plain words: multiply each value of X by its own probability, then add all those products together.
Spot the shortcut: Symmetry
If a distribution is symmetrical — meaning the x-values are evenly spaced around a central value, and the probabilities mirror each other on either side — then the mean is automatically that central value. No calculation needed! Example: if X takes values 1, 5, 9 with probabilities 0.3, 0.4, 0.3, the shape is symmetric about 5, so E(X) = 5 by symmetry alone. This is also true that the mean equals the median here.
Practice Worked-style question
Daphne pays $15 to play a game where she wins a prize of $1, $5, $10 or $100. The random variable W represents her winnings:
w1510100
P(W = w)0.350.50.050.1
Calculate the expected value of Daphne's prize.
Topic 2: Var(X) of Discrete Random Variables
2Finding E(X²) first

squares

Formula
E(X²) = Σ x²·P(X = x)
Square each value of X, multiply by its probability, then add everything together.
The #1 mistake students make here
NOT
  • squared
3

spread out

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