Library History 0470 Who was to Blame for the Cold War?
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Who was to Blame for the Cold War?

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Cambridge (CIE) IGCSE History

Who Was to Blame for the Cold War?

The Cold War began because the USA and USSR, forced together by a common enemy in WWII, stopped trusting each other the moment Germany was defeated — and historians still argue over whether Stalin's expansion or America's aggressive containment lit the fuse first.

Summary — What This Chapter Covers
  • Capitalism (USA) vs Communism (USSR) — two totally opposed ideologies that were only allies "of convenience" during WWII
  • The Grand Alliance broke down after Germany's defeat in 1945 — nothing left to hold the USA and USSR together
  • Yalta (Feb 1945) went smoothly; Potsdam (Jul–Aug 1945) was tense — new leaders, the atomic bomb, and mistrust changed everything
  • The atomic bomb (Hiroshima & Nagasaki, Aug 1945) terrified and angered Stalin, accelerating the arms race
  • The Long Telegram (Kennan) and Novikov Telegram show both sides secretly believed the other wanted their destruction
  • Churchill's "Iron Curtain" speech (March 1946) publicly declared the divide between East and West
  • Stalin turned Eastern Europe into "satellite states" (Poland, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany) as a buffer zone
  • Truman Doctrine (1947) — the USA would help any country resist communism; ended US isolationism
  • Marshall Plan (1947) — $13 billion in US economic aid to rebuild Western Europe and stop the appeal of communism
  • The Berlin Blockade (1948–49) — Stalin's attempt to starve the West out of Berlin, defeated by the Berlin Airlift
  • Consequences: NATO (1949), the Warsaw Pact (1955), and a permanently divided Germany (East/West)
  • Orthodox historians blame Stalin; Revisionist historians blame the USA — there is no single "correct" answer
1. The Ideology of the Cold War

Here's the core problem in plain English: imagine two people who fundamentally disagree about how the world should be run — one believes everyone should own their own business and property (capitalism), the other believes the state should own everything so wealth is shared fairly (communism). Now imagine forcing them to be best friends and work together only because they have a mutual enemy trying to kill them both. That's the USA and USSR in World War II. The moment the enemy (Nazi Germany) was gone, there was no reason left for the friendship to survive.

Capitalism — the ideology where individuals can own property and businesses to make money. By 1941 the main capitalist powers were the USA (led by Franklin D. Roosevelt) and Britain. Roosevelt was fairly tolerant of Stalin and the USSR — he wanted to keep the peace.

Communism — the ideology where the state owns all property so everyone gets a fair share. By 1941 the USSR, led by Joseph Stalin, was the main communist power. Stalin's own domestic policies (forced collectivisation and rapid industrialisation) had already killed millions of his own people in the 1930s — which is exactly why the West was deeply suspicious of him even before the Cold War started.

Why did they even work together at first? When Hitler broke the Nazi-Soviet Pact and invaded the USSR in 1941, Stalin was forced onto the Allied side. Historians call the resulting partnership between the USA, USSR and UK a "marriage of convenience" — they only stayed together because they needed to defeat a common enemy. Once that enemy was gone in May 1945, there was nothing left holding the marriage together.
Key definition A Cold War means there is no direct fighting between the two main countries. Instead, the superpowers fight indirectly — through economic pressure, political manoeuvring, propaganda, and by supporting opposite sides in "proxy wars" fought by other countries.
The Two Historical Camps: Who's to Blame?

This debate runs through the entire chapter, so get it clear now:

Orthodox HistoriansRevisionist Historians
Argue Stalin caused the Cold War by forcefully expanding communism into Eastern Europe, breaking the promises he made at the post-war conferences. Argue the USA caused the Cold War — they built the atomic bomb and refused to share the technology, which intimidated Stalin into acting aggressively. They also say the USA interfered in European politics to force open a capitalist market to export to.
Practice Question
Explain what is meant by the term "Cold War."
2. The Breakdown of the US–Soviet Alliance
The Grand Alliance ("The Big Three")

The Grand Alliance was made up of the USA, the USSR, and the UK, united to defeat the Axis powers of Germany and Japan. Even while working together, they were deeply suspicious of each other — the UK and USA were wary of communism and Soviet strength. Once the Axis powers were defeated by August 1945, the political map of the world shifted: the "old powers" like the UK and France declined in influence, while the USA and USSR emerged as the two new global "superpowers."

Yalta Conference — February 1945

Held in Yalta (a city in the USSR) in the final months of WWII, while Roosevelt, Churchill and Stalin still needed each other to finish the war. This meeting went relatively smoothly.

CountryWhat they wanted
USA (Roosevelt)Soviet support against Japan + Soviet membership of the new United Nations
UK (Churchill)Free elections held in Central and Eastern Europe after the war
USSR (Stalin)To keep the territory gained between the USSR and Germany

What they agreed: Germany would pay $20 billion in reparations and be split into 4 zones; the USSR would fight Japan; the USSR agreed to free elections in Eastern Europe (this became the main area of disagreement later); Poland would hold free elections; the UN would be established.

Why Yalta was actually good for the alliance The USSR declared war on Japan, agreed to share reparations, three Soviet states joined the UN, and Stalin agreed to free elections. On paper, this looked like a genuine, cooperative peace plan.
Potsdam Conference — July–August 1945

Only a few months after Yalta, but everything had changed by the time the Big Three met again in Potsdam, Germany:

  • Roosevelt had died — replaced by Harry S. Truman, who wanted a much tougher approach to Stalin
  • Churchill lost the UK election — replaced by Clement Attlee
  • Germany had now fully surrendered
  • The USA had successfully tested the atomic bomb

This meeting was far more hostile. Stalin wanted harsher reparations from Germany; Truman wanted to protect the German economy instead. Truman was alarmed by Soviet control over Eastern Europe and believed Stalin was actively spreading communism. Stalin, meanwhile, wanted to keep his Red Army stationed in Eastern Europe as protection against future threats from the West.

Memory hook: Yalta = warm handshake, Potsdam = folded arms Yalta happened while the war against Japan still needed everyone's cooperation. Potsdam happened after Germany's defeat (so less need for teamwork) and right after Truman learned about the atomic bomb — giving the USA a new source of power and confidence it didn't have to share with Stalin.
Practice Question
Why was it harder for the Allies to reach agreement at Potsdam than it had been at Yalta? Give two reasons.
3. The Atomic Bomb

In August 1945 the USA dropped two atomic bombs on Japan — the first on Hiroshima (6 August) and the second on Nagasaki (9 August). Roughly 120,000 Japanese civilians were killed.

Why did the USA actually use them?
Official reasonsUnofficial reason
Reduce deaths — avoid a costly ground invasion of Japan that would have killed millions of US troops

Force surrender — Japan had previously refused to surrender

Boost morale — troops would no longer need to keep fighting
Demonstrate power — send a message to the USSR about how technologically advanced and powerful the USA had become

Truman believed using the bomb would persuade Western Europe to support the USA, and encourage Eastern European countries to resist Soviet expansion and ally with America instead.

Why this damaged the alliance so badly Stalin only found out about the success of the Manhattan Project during the Potsdam conference itself. After Hiroshima, Stalin: (1) wanted to build a buffer zone of communist states to protect the USSR from any Western invasion, and (2) massively accelerated the USSR's own atomic bomb project. The USSR successfully tested its own atomic bomb on 29 August 1949 — kicking off a full nuclear arms race.

The atomic bomb increased Cold War tension because Truman wanted to flex American power to deter war and protect Eastern Europe from communism — but Stalin saw this as pure aggression, confirming his belief that the USA wanted to destroy communism, and making him willing to do whatever it took to protect the USSR, including tightening his grip on Eastern Europe.

Practice Question
Explain how the atomic bomb increased tension between the USA and the USSR.
4. The Telegrams and the Iron Curtain
The Long Telegram — February 1946

George Kennan, the USA's ambassador in Moscow, sent an 8,000-word telegram back to Truman (hence the name — it was far longer than a normal telegram). His assessment: Stalin wanted to destroy capitalism because it threatened communism; the USA should aim to "contain" the USSR and communism; and peace would never be possible between the two nations. This telegram effectively became the intellectual foundation for the entire US policy of containment that followed.

The Novikov Telegram — September 1946

The Soviet mirror image. Nikolai Novikov, the Soviet ambassador in Washington, sent his own report back to Stalin: the USA wanted to build up military strength to achieve world domination; after Roosevelt's death the USA no longer wanted to cooperate with the USSR; and the American public would support a war against the USSR.

The key insight Both sides already secretly believed the other was untrustworthy and planning their destruction — and each telegram simply confirmed those existing fears. This is a classic pattern in the whole Cold War: mutual suspicion creating a self-fulfilling prophecy, where each side's defensive move looks like an aggressive move to the other side.
Churchill's "Iron Curtain" Speech — March 1946

Winston Churchill was no longer British Prime Minister, but was still hugely influential. In a speech delivered in the USA in March 1946, he declared:

Famous quote "From Stettin in the Baltic to Trieste in the Adriatic, an iron curtain has descended across the continent."

The "Iron Curtain" referred to the impenetrable divide between capitalist countries in the West and communist countries in the East. Stalin believed the speech reflected the true beliefs of the US government (even though Churchill was no longer in office), and it increased tensions further — both sides built up their militaries, kicking off an arms race.

Practice Question
How did the Long Telegram and the Novikov Telegram impact the US-Soviet alliance?
5. How the USSR Gained Control of Eastern Europe by 1948

From 1943-45 the Soviet Red Army liberated much of Eastern Europe from Nazi control. After 1945, Stalin refused to leave — he wanted these countries to act as a buffer zone between the USSR and any future Western invasion. These countries became known as satellite states: they stayed in the "orbit" of the USSR, meaning they relied on the Soviet Union and had their politics and actions directly influenced by Moscow.

As each Eastern European country fell to communism, it confirmed Truman's fears about the spread of communism, heightened US anti-communist attitudes, and further encouraged the kind of thinking behind Churchill's Iron Curtain speech.

Country-by-Country Timeline
1940 — Baltic States (Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia)
Taken over by the USSR during WWII. The USSR saw them as legitimate Soviet states; the Baltic States wanted independence and said the USSR's takeover was illegal.
1944–45 — Poland
After the failed Warsaw Uprising against the Nazis, the Red Army occupied Poland. Despite agreeing to free elections at Yalta, Stalin did not follow through — the 1947 elections were rigged and marked by intimidation, with communists gaining a suspicious 80% of the vote.
1944–45 — Romania, Bulgaria & East Germany
At Yalta, the Grand Alliance agreed East Germany would fall under Soviet influence. Romania and Bulgaria both lost their monarchies, replaced by Communist governments.
1945–49 — Hungary
Non-communists actually won the 1945 election, but a communist politician named Rakosi took control of the secret police, imprisoned political opponents, and forced the resignation of the Prime Minister. Communists won the rigged 1947 election, and all other parties were banned by 1949.
1948 — Czechoslovakia
A democracy since 1919 (occupied by Nazi Germany 1938-45). After 1945 a non-communist, Edward Benes, led a coalition government. Stalin saw this as a threat to his buffer zone, so in 1948 pro-communist Klement Gottwald led a coup, taking over the government with Soviet backing.
The exception: Yugoslavia and Albania These two were also communist satellite states, but were never occupied by the Soviet Red Army — they'd established their own communist governments independently. As a result, they were given far more independence than the countries bordering the USSR directly.
Practice Question
Describe how the USSR consolidated its hold over Poland from 1945.
6. The US Reaction to Soviet Expansionism
The Truman Doctrine — March 1947

Greece and Turkey were struggling to hold off communist takeovers — Greece specifically was fighting a civil war between monarchists and communists. When Britain announced in 1947 it could no longer afford to militarily support the Greek government, Truman decided America had to step in.

On 12 March 1947 Truman announced the USA would send $400 million to Greece and Turkey. In his speech, he described nations as having two alternative "ways of life":

The First Way (Capitalism)The Second Way (Communism)
Free institutions, free elections, freedom of speech, freedom of religion Terror and oppression, fixed elections, controlled press and radio, suppression of freedoms
Key rule The Truman Doctrine promised money, supplies, weapons, and advice to any country vulnerable to communism. By 1949 Greece had defeated the communists. Crucially, this replaced America's traditional pre-war policy of isolationism (staying out of other countries' affairs) with a new policy of containment — actively stopping communism from spreading, wherever it appeared.
The Marshall Plan — June 1947

General George Marshall visited Europe and reported back to Truman that almost every country in Europe was at risk of turning to communism — WWII had caused massive destruction, and many desperate people saw communism as an appealing way to redistribute wealth and rebuild their lives. Marshall's solution: provide these countries with economic aid so they wouldn't feel forced to turn to communism.

The US Congress passed the Marshall Plan after Czechoslovakia became communist in 1948 — that event was the final push needed to get it approved. In total, the Marshall Plan gave $13 billion to 16 Western European countries (on top of $12.7 billion already given before the plan). The amount each country received was based on its population and pre-war economy. British Foreign Secretary Ernest Bevin called it a "lifeline to sinking men."

The Marshall Plan was technically offered to the Eastern European satellite states too — but Truman knew perfectly well that Stalin would never allow them to accept American money.

Two goals in one policy The Marshall Plan wasn't purely generous — it also made European countries wealthy enough to buy American exports, and helped prevent another Great Depression by building strong global trading partners. Aid and self-interest went hand in hand.
The Impact

Stalin saw the Truman Doctrine and Marshall Plan as a direct threat to communism and the USSR, and accused them of taking over a role that should belong to the United Nations. He called the Marshall Plan "dollar imperialism" — arguing the USA was simply using money to expand its own empire and push free-market capitalism and democracy onto Europe.

The result: the Marshall Plan permanently divided the West from the East. Satellite states supported the USSR; recipients of Marshall Aid supported the USA. Together, the Truman Doctrine and Marshall Plan significantly increased Cold War tensions.

Practice Question
What was the Truman Doctrine? Give four points.
7. Consequences of the Berlin Blockade
Why did the USSR begin the blockade?

At Potsdam, Berlin (like Germany itself) was split into zones — the USA, Britain and France controlled the western zones, the USSR controlled the eastern zone. Even though Berlin sat physically deep inside Soviet-controlled East Germany, it was jointly run.

Jan 1947 — "Bizonia"
The USA and Britain combine their zones in Germany.
Mar 1947 — Truman Doctrine
Increases tension between the capitalist West and communist East.
Apr 1947 — Marshall Plan
West Germany receives American economic aid.
Mar 1948 — "Trizonia"
France combines its zone with Bizonia — now all three Western zones are united.
Jun 1948 — Deutschmark introduced
A new currency for Trizonia — this clearly divides Germany economically. This was the final breaking point for Stalin.
Jun 1948 — Berlin Blockade begins
The Soviet Union shuts all land routes into West Berlin.

Stalin believed the West had no right to be in Berlin at all, since it fell within East Germany. Trizonia's new currency (the Deutschmark) threatened Soviet power in Germany — it split Berlin into two economic zones, and since capitalist Trizonia had a much stronger economy, this would make the USSR look weak in comparison.

By 1948 Stalin had decided that blockading Berlin — cutting all road, rail and canal links — would starve the West out of the city entirely.

The West's Dilemma & Response

West Berlin only had enough food for 36 days and lacked fuel and medicine. The West faced a genuine trap: fight to break the blockade and risk war, or do nothing and simply hand Berlin over to the USSR.

OptionOutcome
Withdraw from BerlinPrevents war — but loses control of the German capital and makes containment look like it has failed
Supply Berlin by landCould provide supplies — but would make the West look like the aggressors and would almost certainly lead to war
Supply Berlin by air ✓ CHOSENCould provide supplies without entering by land — the USSR would be the aggressor if it shot down unarmed supply planes

The West chose the air route — a genuinely clever tactic, because it wasn't an aggressive action, and the USSR would clearly be starting a war if it shot down the planes.

The Berlin Airlift (Operation Vittles) — June 1948 to May 1949
  • The USA and Britain flew in around 1,000 tons of supplies every single day
  • By January 1949, 170,000 tons of supplies were being sent into Berlin in a single month
  • At Berlin-Tempelhof airport, a plane landed roughly every 45 seconds at the height of the airlift
  • At least 78 people died in aircraft accidents — but the Soviet military caused no casualties, because they never shot a single plane down
  • Stalin offered to let West Berliners move to East Berlin to receive food — most refused
  • The Allies refused Stalin's offer to lift the blockade in exchange for removing the Deutschmark from West Berlin
Consequences

The blockade badly damaged Stalin's position. He couldn't stop the airlift — shooting down planes carrying supplies would mean starting a war he wasn't ready for — and simply doing nothing while the West succeeded made the USSR look weak and humiliated. On 12 May 1949, Stalin lifted the Berlin Blockade (the West kept flying supplies until 30 September, just to be safe). It was a huge propaganda victory for the West.

Several major consequences followed directly from the crisis:

DateWestern responseDateSoviet response
Apr 1949NATO created (military alliance)Apr 1955Warsaw Pact created (rival military alliance)
May 1949Federal Republic of Germany created (West Germany)Oct 1949German Democratic Republic created (East Germany)
Exam angle: "Did the Cold War start with the Berlin Crisis?" For: The Berlin Blockade was the first event that genuinely could have caused a real war between the two superpowers. Both sides chose a propaganda fight over a physical fight, and the crisis ended with the permanent, official division of East and West Germany.

Against: The Potsdam Conference in 1945 had already broken the US-Soviet alliance years earlier. Events like the Iron Curtain speech and the creation of Soviet satellite states could equally be seen as the true starting point.
Practice Question
Why did the USSR decide to blockade Berlin in 1948?
8. Who Was to Blame for the Start of the Cold War?

This is the essay-style question this whole chapter builds towards. There's no single "correct" answer — historians genuinely still disagree, and the Cambridge IGCSE wants to see you weigh up evidence on both sides and reach your own supported judgement.

Case Against the USSR
EvidenceCounter-argument
The USSR broke the Yalta Agreement (no free elections in Poland etc.)The Second World War had devastated the USSR — Stalin wanted to regain its strength and security
The Red Army stayed in Eastern Europe and used terror to install communist governmentsMany areas of Eastern Europe had historically been part of Russia until 1917
After Cominform, all satellite states took orders directly from the USSRThe USA's use of the atomic bomb showed Stalin that he couldn't trust the West
The Berlin Blockade was an attempt to force Berlin fully under Soviet controlTruman was never going to genuinely cooperate with Stalin and communism anyway
Stalin was a dictator who did not respect human rights
Case Against the USA
EvidenceCounter-argument
Truman did not tell Stalin about the atomic bomb despite the wartime allianceContainment was really a reaction to Soviet expansion in Eastern Europe, not the cause of it
The US policy of containment was designed to push the USSR awayThe USSR was also interfering in other countries' affairs
The USA interfered in European affairs, e.g. the Greek Civil WarThe Marshall Plan was offered to every country to help rebuild their economies, including satellite states
The Marshall Plan showed the USA wanted control over European marketsStalin had already ignored post-war agreements by refusing free elections in Poland
The West created Bizonia with its own currency to isolate the USSR
Practice Question (Essay Style)
Who was more to blame for the Cold War, the USA or the USSR? Explain your answer.
What to Memorise
Cold War
Hostility between two powers with no direct fighting — instead fought through economics, politics, propaganda, and proxy wars.
Satellite State
A country that stays in the "orbit" of a more powerful nation — relies on it and has its politics controlled by it.
Containment
The US policy of actively stopping communism from spreading anywhere in the world, replacing pre-war isolationism.
Iron Curtain
Churchill's term (March 1946) for the impenetrable divide between capitalist Western Europe and communist Eastern Europe.
Buffer Zone
A ring of friendly (in this case communist) states Stalin wanted around the USSR to protect against future invasion.
Orthodox Historians
Believe Stalin and Soviet expansion caused the Cold War.
Revisionist Historians
Believe US actions (the atomic bomb, containment) caused the Cold War.
Trizonia
The merged Western zones of Germany (US + UK + France, formed March 1948) — introduced the Deutschmark, triggering the Berlin Blockade.
Key Dates Quick Reference
DateEvent
Feb 1945Yalta Conference
Jul–Aug 1945Potsdam Conference; atomic bombs dropped on Japan
Feb 1946The Long Telegram (Kennan)
Mar 1946Churchill's "Iron Curtain" speech
Sep 1946The Novikov Telegram
Mar 1947Truman Doctrine announced
Jun 1947Marshall Plan announced
1948Communist coup in Czechoslovakia
Jun 1948 – May 1949Berlin Blockade & Berlin Airlift
Apr 1949NATO formed
May/Oct 1949West Germany (FRG) / East Germany (GDR) created
Aug 1949USSR successfully tests its own atomic bomb
Apr 1955Warsaw Pact formed
Concepts Checklist
Exam Tips
"Explain why" questions (Paper 1, 6 or 10 marks) Examiners want two fully explained reasons, not a list. Don't just state a fact — follow it with "this meant that..." or "as a result..." to show the consequence. A one-line fact with no explanation only earns partial credit.
"Describe how / What was..." questions (Paper 1, 4 marks) These do NOT require explanation — you get one mark per relevant, accurate point of information. Don't waste time explaining each one; just get four solid, distinct facts down quickly.
Source questions — Nature, Origin, Purpose (NOP) For "how useful is this source" questions, always comment on: Nature (what type of source is it — speech, broadcast, cartoon, diary?), Origin (who created it, and what's their bias likely to be?), and Purpose (why was it made — to inform, to persuade, to reassure?). A source made by a government propaganda outlet (like Moscow Radio) is useful for showing what that government *wanted* people to believe — not necessarily what was objectively true.
Common mistake: confusing Bizonia and Trizonia Bizonia = Britain + USA combining their German zones (Jan 1947). Trizonia = France joining them too (March 1948). Getting the order and composition wrong is one of the most frequent slip-ups students make.
"Who was more to blame" essay questions (10 marks) Never argue only one side. Always present a case for the USA, a case for the USSR, and finish with a clear, direct judgement using words like "fully" or "partially" to show the *degree* to which you agree. A conclusion that just repeats both sides without picking a position loses marks — the examiner wants to see you actually make a decision based on the evidence.
Watch your dates Cold War essay questions often hinge on exact chronology — e.g. "did the Cold War start at Potsdam or with the Iron Curtain speech or with the Berlin Blockade?" Being precise about when each event happened (and what happened immediately before it) is what separates a strong answer from a vague one.
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